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We the undersigned are very seriously concerned about the catastrophic ecological consequences that warming of the Northern Hemisphere will cause.

WE ARE DETERMINED TO SAVE HUMAN LIFE ON EARTH!

We are of the opinion that the huge and continuing rise in the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere is a serious threat to human life on earth (a rise, of over three-fifths of a degree Celsius since 1976 - from January 2001, partly the result of a jump in temperature in early January 2002). Hopefully the size of the jump in the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere which took place in early January 2002 will not be permanent. However the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere will probably still continue to average above 0.6 degrees above the level until 1976*, which it has done since the start of 2001, which will cause huge geographical and ecological damage. In two or three years time the temperature will start rising again leading into a runaway greenhouse effect unless action to mitigate this event is taken now.

We the undersigned call on HM Government to:

1- publicise the dangers of the warming of the Northern Hemisphere as a top priority,

2- take urgent action to reduce emissions of carbon per person per year in Britain (from the current 2.4 tons to 1.5 tons early in 2003 as explained in the background note);
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3- champion an international agreement to stabilise the greenhouse gas concentration of the air worldwide almost immediately by
a) cutting the emissions of carbon dioxide and methane and
b) protecting vital global habitats such as forests and peat bogs which have a vital role in absorbing carbon dioxide

* assuming no very large volcano puts dust into the stratosphere in the near future

Name: Tel

 

2 Explanation

INTRODUCTION
The last 19 months have averaged 0.59 degrees Celsius above the 1961-90 average in the Northern Hemisphere; 0.53 for 2002 and 0.71 for the first 7 months of 2002. This is 0.65 degrees Celsius above the level until 1976 a rise of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade.

THE DANGERS OF NORTHERN WARMING

PLEASE HELP SAVE THE WORLD. IT NEEDS YOUR HELP
PLEASE READ THIS. YOU CAN HELP BY SIGNING THIS PETITION.

It is essential that a few people sign this petition. Then it will be possible to broadcast it and more people will then sign it and the issue will rapidly gain serious attention. This will force a debate on the claims being made and thus action may be taken to implement the petition. All this as a result of the first few signatories who will be recorded as having helped to begin the petition.

Global Warming is almost certainly the result of the build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere especially carbon dioxide. This has increased from 285 parts per million in air in 1850 to 306 parts in 1950 to just over 370 parts in 2001. Global temperature normally follows the carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere which has varied between 200 parts per million in the ice ages to 280 parts in the interglacial warm periods during the last 2 million years up until 1985. The carbon dioxide concentration of the air, prior to 1985, last reached 350 parts per million ten million years ago and 370 parts per million 20 million years ago when the earth was far warmer than it is now. It is most unlikely that humans would survive such temperatures.

2002 has seen a very threatening climatic development. Though the first half year was only the second warmest on record globally it is the warmest in the Northern Hemisphere. The Northern hemisphere is warming much faster than the Southern Hemisphere and there is a serious danger of a runaway greenhouse effect affecting the whole planet starting in the North.

The figures which do not explain the problem are quoted for the record. In 2001 the Northern Hemisphere was 0.59 degrees Celsius warmer than the temperature up until 1976 but the first 7 months of 2002 was 0.77 degrees Celsius warmer than the period until 1976 thus giving a 19 month average of 0.65 above this level. It seems probable that the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere will settle down at a little above 0.6 degree Celsius above the 1976 level for the next two or three years, which is a large jump on what has gone before.

This huge rate of temperature increase between 1976 and 2002 averages 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In two or three years it will probably start rising rapidly again and develop into a runaway greenhouse effect.

Should the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere average above 0.6 degrees Celsius above the 1976 level for the 2001-3 period then most inhabitants of the Northern hemisphere should notice milder winters, a generally changing climate and there will be significant retreat of most mountain glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere most of which is already becoming apparent. It is now probable that this will happen, unless a large volcano puts dust into the stratosphere in the near future, and it is now time to take immediate drastic action to stabilise the greenhouse gas concentration of the atmosphere.

Failure to achieve this stabilisation very quickly will probably doom humanity to extinction within 20 years. I challenge the climate scientists to deny this and debate this issue. Should they accept this point then the greenhouse gas concentration of the atmosphere can be stabilised very quickly.

This debate can be begun by people signing this petition and thus bringing the gravity of the situation to a wider audience.

There is a grave and immediate problem in the north of the Northern Hemisphere. The level of warming increases the further north one goes in the Northern Hemisphere so that north of sixty degrees North there has been a warming of two or three degrees Celsius since 1976. This is causing mountain glaciers to shrink in area and snow and ice areas to shrink in size. Thus whereas the snow used to reflect the suns rays the darker surfaces absorb them thus further warming the area..

THE ARCTIC OCEAN - A RUNAWAY GREEENHOUSE EFFECT

This is a medium term threat to our lives and only if everybody is aware of the problem is it possible to take corrective action. All must be aware of the danger if any of us are to survive.

The greatest problem relates to the Arctic Ocean. The ice covered area has shrunk slightly in late summer in the last thirty years but the biggest single ecological problem on the planet is that the ice thickness has reduced from ten to six feet thick on average in late summer. However at the fringes there are large areas where the average thickness is less than one foot in late summer. Should there be even the slightest further warming this ice will disappear in late summer and the dark ocean will absorb sunlight which previously the ice would have reflected thus warming the sea, melting the ice, and so on.

A warmer ocean will warm the frozen Tundra land around it. Since there are billions of tons of frozen Methane and Carbon dioxide trapped in the frozen land these will be released into the air if the land warms. These gases are trace gases in the atmosphere and there concentration could be doubled in the atmosphere as a result. This will result in further warming thus warming the arctic ocean and thereby releasing frozen Methane hydrates from the bottom of the sea. This will further increase the atmospheric content of Methane warming the global atmosphere. All this will be sufficient to warm the globe including the Southern hemisphere and since there is nearly one hundred times as much carbon dioxide dissolved in sea water as there is in the atmosphere and warmer water can hold less dissolved carbon dioxide than cold water there will be a massive surge in the global concentration of carbon dioxide in the air and thus a much warmer world. Humanity could probably not survive in such a world

THE SOLUTION

The greenhouse gas concentration of the atmosphere should be stabilised at the present concentration. This would probably stabilise the global climate over time but there would be still some warming in the near term future but we might just avoid a runaway greenhouse effect. The chances are that if there is any increase at all in the greenhouse gas concentration of the planet then there will be a runaway greenhouse effect which will begin in about three or four years time and most people will be dead in ten years time and humanity extinct within twenty years..

Stabilising the greenhouse gas concentration of the air can probably be achieved with relatively little hardship very quickly but even if the hardship were enormous it must still be done because it is a question of our survival.

A warmer world will absorb more carbon dioxide from the air to the point where a runaway greenhouse effect starts when the situation is reversed. Thus if carbon dioxide emissions which are the main greenhouse gas emitted by humanity were cut by 40 per cent stabilisation of carbon dioxide in the air will follow. Since most other greenhouse gas emissions are linked to carbon dioxide the emissions of these gases will also fall drastically.

A twenty per cent cut in carbon dioxide emissions can be achieved by banning the cutting down of rainforests, peat bogs and other sinks for carbon dioxide. Since most of these occur in the third world these areas can be leased at a high cost from them, policed, and the areas left in a pristine condition. This will provide much needed cash for these countries and the west will no longer need to give them aid. Thus emissions from all other sources will only need reducing by twenty five per cent.

Most of this can be saved simply by coming to an agreement that no nation will be allowed to emit more than three tons per head of carbon per annum. This limit will apply to all very advanced large consuming states such as the United States, Canada, Qatar, Australia and New Zealand. Nations which cover very large areas but are lightly populated and use large quantities of energy as a result, countries like Russia, Tajikistan and the Ukraine will be allowed 2.5 tons per person per year, whilst all other countries will be allowed 2 tons per person although no country will be allowed to trade unused emission allowances.

Policing of such an agreement will be by allowing large countries not to abide by the rules if other large nations don’t but if small nations fail to abide by the rules military power will be the ultimate means of enforcement.

The great advantage of such a simple solution is that countries will find it easy to agree. In essence it means that high energy using States will simply agree to huge cuts in emissions such that they must assume that most of their emitting actions will have to cease and everyone will have to concentrate on survival without using energy to survive. Acting in this way will mean that we can all survive.

Another advantage is that it is a simple case. Scientists can easily verify it which makes it difficult to deny and thus easy to get accepted even though the message is bleak..

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3 PRESS RELEASE

Online petition launched to test Blair’s renewed concern on climate

A petition was launched today calling on the Government to take immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to prevent devastating climate change taking place in the near future. The petition, initially only on the internet, can be found at www.millennium-debate.org

The initiator of the petition is concerned that the very sharp rise in the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere in the last 18 months, which is now averaging more than 0.6 degrees Celsius above the temperature up until 1976, could precede a further sharp increase in temperature which will lead us into a runaway greenhouse effect. This will raise the temperature of the whole earth considerably and lead to the extinction of the human race.

The petition calls on the government to a) publicise the dangers of the warming of the Northern Hemisphere as a top priority,
b) take urgent action to reduce the emissions of carbon per person in the U.K. from 2.4 tons to 1.5 tons per year early in 2003,
c) champion an international agreement to stabilise the greenhouse gas concentration of the air almost immediately.

John Davies the originator of the petition said, ‘I am planning to lobby MP’s to sign the petition as well as members of the public.
I have already had support from MP’s in this venture but more details will be available later. It will be a difficult campaign with very challenging targets but we may win because we must win. There is a very grave danger that a runaway greenhouse effect could start within 3 years and humanity become extinct within 20 years.

The aim is to save human life on earth.

Best Wishes,

John B Davies

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