In the global energy demand scenario, the use of fuels for purposes other
than electricity generation will grow by less than one-third, much less
than the generation of electricity. Table 3 shows the direct fuel scenarios
The renewable contribution to fuels used directly could reach nearly one-quarter
by 2025 and two-fifths by 2050, with most of the contribution coming from
biomass-derived fuels such as methanol, ethanol, hydrogen, and biogas.
Methanol and biogas may well prove to be the biofuels of choice because
they are the energy carriers most easily used in the fuel cells that would
be used for transportation.
Table 3 also shows the levels of CO2 emissions that the scenarios described
will produce. Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels associated
with the renewables-intensive scenario would be reduced 12% by 2025 and
26% by 2050. During this period, the CO2 emissions from industrialised
countries would be nearly halved by 2025 and down to a third of present
values by 2050. The industrialised countries share of total worldwide
emissions would decline from about three-quarters in 1990, to about two-fifths
in 2025 and one-third in 2050.
Global CO2 emissions per capita would be halved by 2025 and reduced to
less than two-fifths of present values by 2050. Despite the rising relative
contribution of developing countries to the total global CO2 emissions,
per capita emissions of developing countries in 2050 would still be only
one-third of those for industrialised countries.